Astute Strategist

New Highs, Now What? Market Context Good Sunday evening to all,... A rally in excess of 200 points in two weeks the S&P 500, new intraday all-time highs and in the end theres lackluster follow through. This week the S&P 500 settled at 2950 and the Dow at 26,719 even gold came back to life settling above 1400/ounce, it has been a buyers delight. Anyone can tell you just by looking at the chart in the S&P that a run up from 2738 to 2950 in darn out impressive. There is no secret that this market is bullish over the long term, even we here at Astute Strategist are bullish over the long run, so much so that we are even looking at the Dow going around 32,000 in the next year and a bit (possibly earlier). Now we hear you, well thats great and wonderful but what about us in the here and now. Well, given that we have maintained weekly closes above our key numbers in the Dow and S&P things are indeed looking on the up and up. There is a slight possibility that we are to see a fake out drop before heading even higher there may even be a fake out move lower, a bounce to test the highs a move make down and then on to higher highs but that is indeed the path we see. Our eyes are going to be on where we close this week, as it is a weekly, monthly, and quarterly close. In the Dow 26,950 for the week, 26,770 for the month. Closing below 26,155 will indicate that we are for the moment, not ready for a buying frenzy to begin. Since the quarter ends of this Fridays closing numbers, we are watching 26,615. At the time of this post, we are above most of these levels but we do have a week of trading along with the twitter account of an ever so emotionally stable and truth-telling US president. Time will tell if we are ready to breakout further to newer and higher highs or if we are still in a consolidation pattern. Either way, as mentioned we are bullish over the longer term time frame and a company such as Apple Inc (AAPL) is a prime example of where we would look at buying on dips and putting monies to work. If the market is set to make newer and higher highs and a stock like AAPL is in bull markets outperforming the market, where would you want to put your hard earned money to work?

Taking A Breather Before All-Time Highs!? Market Context Good Saturday to all,...Continue reading

Dow 23,000 And A Steal Of A Deal!? Market Context Good day,...Continue reading

A Solid Bounce Off 2900 & Our Next Stock Market Context Happy Sunday!... Two weeks ago I wrote that if the S&P 500 closed above 2915, testing the all-time highs would be next. Low and behold, this week we not only tested the all-time highs, we tested, closed above and made a new all-time high. Can you say the bull is large and in charge!? As of Fridays close at 2945, even after the Fed came out to speak Wednesday which took the S&P down -53 points to test 2900 and like off a springboard from the low of 2900 we took off to settle the week at 2945. As of Thursday, the S&P closed at 2917 and for the week, I had mentioned to Astute Insiders that the next level was a closing above 2925, if that was achieved then we were more bullish than bearish. Having settled at 2945 we are likely too close not to test the intra-day all-time highs at 2954. Over the weekend, it can be a bit of a toss-up given the clowns that hold political power. That being said there are no ignoring wise words a mentor of mine once told me, The trend is your friend, except at the end. At this point and time, I do not see an end to this trend. We could easily see a pullback of some kind, as nothing goes in a finite direction without a breather, possibly a re-test of support at 2900. The days that looks to be of most interest in the coming week is Wednesday, May 8th and Thursday, May 9th, as China reports their exports, imports and trade balance. This could be the catalyst to lead to there being progress in the on going trade war, not to mention that President Trump has just set another round of tariffs so the markets are already looking to be heading lower as we approach tomorrows opening bell. Keep your eyes and ears open Finally, I was wanting to leave a bit of a sneak peek for all of our Astute Blog readers. In our last blog post, we wrote about being and getting long Disney (DIS) and since then it has taken off like a rocket. This is not to say that we can predict the future by any means, but it sure is nice to see the stock perform as anticipated. Our next stock will most likely be MGM Growth Properties (MGP). There are plenty of reasons to jump on this one. Want to know more? Become an Astute Insider and get all the details.

From Dull to Sharp and ABOVE 2900 Apr 13, 2019 Astute Strategist Blog Market Context... Happy Saturday, Through the first half of the week, it looked like we were going to yet again have the S&P 500 (SPX) fall short of closing the week above the big 2900 price level. Having started the week at the 2888 level, and hovering a few points higher and lower up and until this past Thursday, April 11th which is when I wrote to our Astute Insiders (subscribers) that price action is showing something interesting and though it was speculative, I was of the opinion that the SPX was bound to test, if not close above the 2900 level for the week ending Friday, April 12th. Having built a low risk, high reward trade if the SPX did indeed close above 2900, our trade risked $2,200 to yield a potential max profit of just over $7,500. When the opening bell rang on Friday, the opening print in the SPX was 2900.86 and in all honesty, I wanted to hold the trade till the close as price action gave me the conviction that we would indeed close above 2900, we closed Friday at 2907. Astute Insiders (subscribers) yielded returns on capital in excess of 250% (286% to be exact). Now that we have closed above the elusive 2900 price level, where to? This market really is quite bullish. There were plenty of reasons or chances for support levels to not just be tested but breached, and yet buyers continue to take control. It really boils down to money flow, not just North America, but specifically Europe and Asia. Given the political turmoil from Brexit, international monies have nowhere else to go, so when the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg keep reiterating that we are bound for a crash and this is the start of a recession, yes there can very well be a decisive pullback that can make it looks like the bull has indeed been gutted and the bears are the new rulers, however I am reminded of the old saying looks are deceiving. Price action always tells the story and if a bear market or likes of a recession are in the cards, we will, of course, be watching for it but in the here and now, it is certainly not in this current deck. Watch for a closing at or above 2915, if that is solidified, testing the all-time highs (2940) would likely be next. In closing, I wanted to touch on our most recent stock that Astute Insiders got long last month. On March 24th, 2019, I wrote about Disney (DIS) being the next stock we were going to buy, there were plenty of reasons as to why it was so attractive. The next day (March 24th was a Sunday) we bought shares at $108, fast forward to this week and on Friday DIS closed at $130. Earlier in the week, I was out with a few colleagues and had mentioned that buying Disney and shorting Netflix is a trade worth considering. On Friday, Disney was up +11% while Netflix saw a drop of over -5%. All in all, it was a great week, keep your eyes on the closing price levels and enjoy the weekend.

All that Glitters is Apr 7, 2019 Astute Strategist Blog Market Context... Happy Sunday, Shakespeare once said All that glitters is not gold, this market seems to glitter endlessly and investors on a buying frenzy as if to say theres no reason to sell. After the first week in April, the S&P 500 is close to record highs and on Friday, having closed at 2892, we are now just +40 points away. Will we get there or is this market about the take a breather? Truth be told, I would not be surprised to see this market keep going. Considering the fact that capital flows have nowhere else to go, it really is just a matter of time before we see an attempt to testing the record highs. The key takeaway, in my opinion, is what happens after that? Being long the market really pays when we are in a trend like we have been since the start of the year, but what do we do once there is selling or the idea of political warfare? Take into account, the US having clumbsy thumbsy President, talks of trade wars, the closing of borders, tariffs on anything the President thinks of, where does one put their monies. Are indexes really the best way to go? Here is some food for thought, year to date the S&P 500 is trading up some 15%. Now take a stock like Apple Inc into the mix, it is trading up 25% year to date. It all starts and begins with the flow of capital and price action. Astute Insiders saw us get long Apple a few times in just the past couple of weeks and yielded an average return on capital of 15%. Can this happen each month? Who knows, but it is what we aim for. For now, this market continues to show very strong signs of it remaining bullish, and so long as this is the trend we will remain long, but it is no secret that the market is showing signs of upside exhaustion. Also, we must remember that earnings are starting to kick off in the next week so will those be the catalyst for this market to take a breath? Remain vigilant and be ready to take action in protecting profits in the short term. Long term, as I have mentioned to many Astute Insiders, this market is very bullish. There is simply nowhere else for capital to move to when being put to work. Astute Strategist prides itself on being wealth builders and we want to show you everything that is possible in this market. All for less than a cup of coffee a day with our Astute Millionaire weekly class. Join us and see the true power of education in action.

How Resilient Is The Stock Market!? Astute Strategist Blog Market Context... Good Saturday, How resilient is the stock market? Looking back at where the market was in December of 2018 and where we are now, it has been a straight shot to the upside. Do any of us remember the S&P 500 being below 2500 or 2400 for that matter? In the here and now, since the end of 2018, the market is well in the positive with the S&P 500 being up 13% for the year. Are there ways to outperform the market? In other words, is there a way to yield better returns than the general market? Most will say no, and those who have adopted the efficient market hypothesis which says that you can not beat the market will all tend to agree with the above statement. Astute Strategist is here to show you that it can be done. Below you will see our holdings of each stock, and when we bought it, that is, date and price. Did every stock go up? Of course not. Are there ways to still yield a profit in sideways or down markets? You bet there is and Astute Strategist wants to show you how with our Astute Millionaire class. Each week we go over having long stock and using options to hedge downside, all for less than a cup of coffee a day. In last weeks blog, I wrote, As for the market and the upcoming week, the trend is your friend and given the market has closed above the 2820 price level, the next level of resistance looks to be around the 2840-2850 level. It would not surprise me to see a pause in this uptrend and a test of support at the 2800 level before resuming. The S&P 500 hit a high this past week of 2860 before closing the week right at the 2800 support level. Where now? It would appear the market could go either way from here after having elected a new week over week low, so penetrating 2800 support could be in the cards. The real important question is if we continue to see volatility (movements both up and down) how are you going to protect your hard earned monies? Nothing goes up forever. Risk & Reward Below is a snapshot of our portfolio. Note, our first long position was September 2017, the S&P 500 since then has yielded 13.13% while Astute Strategist yielded 20.44%. This is not included the shares we added, be apart of true wealth creation click here. You worked hard for your money, it deserves it.

No News Is Bullish! Astute Strategist Blog Market Context... Good day, Was it really only 1 week ago that we were looking at the S&P 500 (SPX) trended lower and possibly testing the support level of 2700!? A week ago on March 8th, we saw a low of 2722 in the SPX, fast forward 5 trading days and we are looking at a closing 100 points higher at 2822. What was the catalyst? There were no real positives coming out of the China trade talks. Is it the age-old saying, No news is bullish! More and more this market seems to have less fear as seen with the Volatility Index (VIX) closing at 12.88% for the week. The moments that there are countless buyers or where market participants are overly bullish is typically when the market surprises everyone and the rug gets pulled. Are we in such an environment? Time will tell, but until that is revealed where are we putting our monies? On March 8th to subscribers, I had stated that Apple Inc (AAPL) looked to be holding up quite well, and given the amount the market bounced off the lows, I would be getting long AAPL, it was trading around the 170 level. At the time of this blog post, AAPL closed the week at 186, thats a 9% move in a week! Often I am told by investors and traders, I am waiting for the pullback, then I am going to buy this market or I am waiting for the crash because I want to buy lower, while those can sound great in theory, how many times are the followed upon? For example, when the SPX was at a low of 2346 in December 2018, was that enough of a pullback or crash? Jessie Livermore said it best, Markets are never wrong, opinions often are. Wouldnt it be a beautiful thing to see you have stock, and not need the market to cooperate and still come out ahead? Let me give you a quick example. In our Astute Millionaire Course, which we get long stock and use options to hedge downside. We bought Southwest Airlines (LUV) at 56.25, it is since trading at 51 and now we own 4% more shares for no added out of pocket investment. How!? Let us show you, all for less than a cup of coffee a day Click here! As for the market and the upcoming week, the trend is your friend and given the market has closed above the 2820 price level, the next level of resistance looks to be around the 2840-2850 level. It would not surprise me to see a pause in this uptrend and a test of support at the 2800 level before resuming.

FREE And CLEAR? Astute Strategist Blog Sat, Mar 16, 2019... Market Context Happy Weekend, The S&P500 closes above 2800 for the week and all is right with the bull market? Looking closely at this market and where it is headed, it almost indeed seems to good to be true. Consider the fact almost all 3 major indexes closed above big round numbers, along with the S&P, the Dow above 26,000 for the week, Nasdaq lagged closing just under 7,600. Is this the silver lining? In all honesty, I am of the opinion that we are setting up for a spring arrival of volatility. Add the fact that the S&P did not close the month of February at or above 2800, it almost appears to be the calm before the storm. Though I am not entirely bearish just yet, we could start seeing volatility potentially taking us to test the lows. The lows I am looking for are the ones elected in the month of February and for the year, 2612 and 2444 respectively. I must reiterate, I am not all out bearish just yet, this will begin to take shape only if we violate the low made this past week (2775). It is likely we first test the resistance levels I referenced in past blog posts those figures being between 2815-2820 if those are breached to the upside, then in all likelihood a slingshot takeoff to the upside is possible, somewhere around 2840-2850. There is a saying by Wall Street fictional character Gordon Gekko, Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs? They get slaughtered. This has been a saying that has held true, everyone loves a bull market up and until its too late to sell and cash out and into profits, then often theres the justification I am in it for the long haul. Whether in it for the long haul or not, hedging/protecting against volatility is without a doubt underrated and overlooked when it comes to protecting your hard earned money. This is what inspired Astute Strategist to begin its Astute Millionaire weekly education class. We show you how to stay long stock and hedge/protect those shares against volatility. All for less than a cup of coffee a day. Partake in the greatest education that will keep your hard earned money safe while continuing to grow. Click here Risk & Reward Our weekly class got long Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) with hedges to protect the shares. Below is the risk graph to illustrate our position in LUV, as you can see we have ample protection on the shares and the beauty is in what happens moving forward. This is Warren Buffett type wealth creation. Find out how here

Livin On A Prayer!? Astute Strategist Blog Sat, Mar 16, 2019... Market Context Good day all, As we get to the last week of February, we are looking at the indexes advancing to higher highs. Take into consideration the words of a dovish Fed along with the mention, rumor or slightest hint of China trade talks being optimistic its no wonder that for the week, indexes have made a greater than 1% move up. The Dow closed the week above 26,000 and the SPX above 2790, this is indeed very bullish. Our levels to watch were for a close above 25,970 and 2782 for the Dow and SPX respectively. We have of course closed above both, so now are off to the races? It would seem the next objective for the market would be a close above 2800, if we do close above that level we could easily see a test of 2815-2820 area where when last visited we saw a double top, followed by our mid-November through December sell-off. Could we see volatility again soon? Your guess is as good as mine, but I will say, that having long stock and positions that are unhedged when this market really could turn on a dime could leave anyone uneasy, and with this market being up some 11% for the year, ask yourself one simple question. Do you want to leave all that profit on the table? Enter the wonderful world of hedging against volatility. Right now it is almost unanimous amongst investors when stating Its ok I am in it for the long haul. If that is the case, why not execute the power behind options that allow you to amplify the growth of all the monies in RSP, TFSA and IRA accounts? After all, you worked damn hard enough to earn it. The Astute Millionaire weekly online class starts next week, where we go into using options to hedge/protect long stock and most importantly your money. Now, I know it is not even close to Thanksgiving but are you ready for the gravy? At only $79/month that is less than a cup of coffee a day. Join today, dont let your monies be apart of the volatility crush, take part in the volatility rush! Risk & Reward Below is a chart of the SPX from the lows we saw in the last week of December to now. My weekly lyrical tribute to the market comes to us from Bon Jovis, Livin On a Prayer, Woah, were halfway there. Woah livin on a prayer. Take my hand, well make it swear. Woah livin on a prayer. I will close with something my father repeatedly said to me No one ever went bankrupt protecting profits. Enjoy your weekend!

Bull Or Bear Trap? Astute Strategist Blog Sat, Mar 16, 2019... Market Context Good day all, What a week and nothing to show for it. The S&P 500 moved a whopping 1.39 points for the week. The important piece of information is where the S&P reached and where it closed. Having hit a high this week of 2739 (which was just shy of the 200-day moving average) followed by a low of 2681, the 68 point swing has us yet again confirming that there is yet to be a breakout in either direction. Now the question, where are we going from here? It really is tough to say, the more I watch price action, the more I am leaning toward testing of lows. This week we saw a low of 2681 and yet again for the week we manage to remain above 2700. If I had to choose I would say we are on a path that is much closer to resistance than support, so with the price levels of 2715 and 2725 not being broken through on a closing basis for the week, we could be heading back toward those numbers before heading lower. Fighting an uptrend can be dangerous and downright painful and while I am more bearish, I would not be surprised if we have further upside, it is all about being nimble and adapting with change. Day and swing trading is not for everyone, so where do we put our hard earned money? Government bonds? Indexes? ETFs? Any of those can be a good idea, the secret is knowing how to control the risk that is invested in the market. Which is why Astute Strategist is pleased to announce the unveiling of Astute Millionaire: 5 Steps to Your First or Next Million. Astute Millionaire is going to be an educational online class, where we buy stock, show you how to use options to hedge the stock and illustrate the power of compounding. Its going to be held weekly for roughly 1 hour and if by chance you cant make it because of commitments, do not worry, its recorded and each class will be available for you to watch at your convenience. The Astute Millionaire course costs less than your breakfast each day. That was not a typo, it works out to $2.66 a day. The objective here is simple, control your money and invest in your future. Confirm your spot here. Risk & Reward Below is a 5-day chart of the S&P 500. You can see the market is moving but as for right now, seems to be stalled on advancing. This market repeatedly reminds me of Journey lyrics Working hard to get my fill, everybody wants a thrill payin anything to roll the dice just one more time, some will win some will lose, some were born to sing the blues, oh the movie that never ends it goes on and on and on and on.

Astute Blog January 26th 2019 Market Context Good day,... Markets are moving and yet as each day comes to an end its as if there has been little or no movement. Consider this, on Tuesday when markets opened (post-MLK day) the S&P 500 was at 2657, fast forward a week and its at 2664. Hard to believe that during the week we saw a low of 2612 and a high of 2672. That right there is a 60 point range, a 2.3% swing. Yet on a weekly level, we are barely up 7 points thats not even half a percent. Here we are nearing the close of the first month in 2019 and there have only been 3 down days. Yes, you read that right 3. To the end of 2018, it seemed like investors and traders couldnt buy an up day (no pun intended), in December the SPX saw 10 consecutive down days which popped volatility up above 35. It is now sitting idly in the high teens and in my humble opinion, this market could be getting ready to see volatility return once more. As mentioned to Astute Insiders (subscribers) there appears to be resistance at 2710 in the SPX, for the second week we have placed another trade taking advantage of that level along with having time work for us. How!? This is where utilizing the power of options comes into play. So now the biggest and most important question that you should ask, "Why do I care?" and simply put, money is finite so effectively using it makes all the difference. That is exactly what we focus on at Astute Strategist. "What is best for my money?" The answer, its with you! Thats right, at Astute Strategist we do not manage money or trade for individuals. We simply find the opportunities and give you the reins, no management or performance fee. You execute, you yield, its your future. Risk & Reward With their being so little volatility thus far, we are now focusing on its return while also partaking in earnings season. Yes, its that exciting time of the year and having traded Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) this past week using under $6,000, Astute Insiders (subscribers) yielded a +20% return on capital. FAANG stocks are set to report next week. Click "Become An Astute Insider" above or subscribe and join us for the journey.

Astute Blog January 19th 2019 Market Context Happy Saturday,...Continue reading

Astute Blog January 13th 2019 Market Context Great Sunday to you all,... Heres to you all having had a lovely weekend and ready for another wonderful week ahead. The markets have seen endless up days in 2019. The first trading day in 2019 had the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 2476, days later and the SPX is at 2596. Volatility seems to be a distant memory for investors and traders. Prior to the start of 2019, all anyone could hear coming from the talking heads on CNBC was that we are in a bear market and headed for a recession. I will admit the level and pace at which we declined was a tad startling, however, having issued warnings to subscribers that we should see a bottom into the late days of December followed by a bounce, recent price action has been of little surprise. The interesting part begins in the days and weeks ahead. All eyes will be watching the language and actions of UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexit not to mention clumsy-thumbsy President Trump and his twitter actions regarding China and the trade deal. Lots of these events can shake the markets. The takeaway is, where do we go and how can we yield? I will say this, I believe we are headed for further consolidation rather than reaching for new highs just yet. The consolidation period is likely to last until Spring 2019 (March) where we will likely find a new bottom (lower than the December 2018 lows) and then be off to greener pastures. How can you yield? For the less active investor, Astute 12 this where we use cost-effective hedges with options on long positions (positions you already own). For those who which to trade the swings in this market? Our VIX6 is prime to capitalize on market volatility to produce semi-monthly income. Our most recent trade is set out till February 1st, 2019 where we use mathematical statistics and time to your advantage. Want to protect your long stock and systematically yield on market volatility? Click Become An Astute Insider below and be apart of the journey! Risk & Reward Our most recent hedge, in place until February 1st, 2019. At the time of this post the SPX is trading at 2596, we start realizing profit below 2500. Thats 96 points away. Far? Yes, but this market has seen declines of greater depth in even shorter time spans.

Astute Blog January 4th 2019 Market Context Good day all,... The first few trading sessions in 2019 are in and it was anything but dull and boring. Hard to believe it was possible considering that Fed Chairman Powell seemed to make it a personal mission of his to destroy chances of there being any glimpse of a bull market. In updates to our Astute Insiders (subscribers) this week, I expressed concern as the first trading day came to close and we closed a measly 3 points higher in the SPX. Accordingly, I sent out the update to hedge the SPX and low and behold it lost 62 points. Before the close Thursday, I had said that we should see a relief bounce heading into the trade talks between Chinas President Xi and President Trump scheduled to begin this coming Monday the 7th. Here we are looking at a Friday of +80 and +700 point bounce in the SPX and Dow respectively. Quite a way to close out the week. So where to now? In an update on Jan 2nd, 2019 I said "Here in 2019, we opened the day in a sea of red and there has been some buying since. I will express my opinion here and say that we are likely going to see a lower low (than the 26th) in mid to late January. It is with this opinion that we are getting our hedges in order to protect our long positions from being hit and our capital depreciating." The 26th is referring to December 2018. I stand by this opinion as price action has not told me otherwise (yet). The December 2018 low was 2346 in the SPX and 21,712 in the Dow. I had mentioned 21,600 in the Dow as being the figure to watch for December 2018 and it remains to be a key figure here in 2019. A close below that and we are likely going lower, with some substance. Protect your long positions. My 2019 prediction for the market is that we go much higher than where we opened to begin of the year, but nowhere close to a straight line. We are bound for lots of volatility and when utilized as subscribers have seen, profits are bound. Risk & Reward Our SPX Hedge for February 1st, 2019. A close between 2480-2350 and there is lots of profit to be had. To put the range into perspective we closed today at 2531, the SPX needs to see a drop of less than 2% in the next 3 weeks!

Astute Blog December 21st 2018 Market Context Good day all,... Fourteen straight trading sessions have been in the red. That is pretty much (less 1 day) 3 consecutive weeks of lower lows and closes in the red. Hard to believe that this time last week the SPX settled at 2600. Five trading days later 2416 which is a -184 point swing to head into the weekend before Christmas. Selling rallies seems to be a trick that many traders are catching onto, so much to the point that it seems like the market is setting itself up for the ultimate bear trap. Our big support number in the Dow is still intact at 21,600. However, the fact that we closed below support levels this week in the Dow and SPX indicates to me that we are likely in for lower lows next week. The two key bearish reversals to watch for in todays close were 23,052 and 22,415, we elected the first but not the second, which indicates further downside but not a meltdown. If I had to take a guess, I would say further downside into the 26th followed by a rally into the end of the year and then further downside forming a low in January. The VIX closed above 30 which means yet again there are ample opportunities to protect a capital via our hedges and yield. Just as subscribers yielded on todays expiration in the SPX, having placed an unbalanced condor and managing to yield 72% return! Heres to more opportunities in a market full of volatility. Join us, click the "Become An Astute Insider" button below to be part of these great hedges and more!