Gillian Tenneson

Canadian home prices forecast to fall 7% in 2021: Moody’s Canada’s housing market mounted an impressive comeback after the springtime freeze, but a prolonged period of high unemployment and lower incomes will eventually sap the market’s current vigour. That’s the message from Moody’s Analytics Economist Abhilasha Singh, who authored the economic research firm’s quarterly assessment of the Canadian real estate market.... In the report, published this week, Singh wrote that a combination of government stimulus, mortgage deferrals, low interest rates and strong demographics have kept the housing market afloat during the pandemic thus far. But despite the promising burst of job gains happening in the third quarter, Canada’s employment picture will remain dire at the end of the year, with joblessness exceeding nine percent. Singh expects the economic recovery’s momentum to fade by early 2021, marking the point when the full weight of the pandemic will be finally felt by the Canadian housing market. The housing market will no longer be able to escape the poor condition of the labor market as vacancy and delinquency rates rise in 2021, she wrote. High unemployment and lower income will restrain buyers’ return to the market. So will affordability issues in Vancouver and Toronto. Further, slower in-migration flows to Canada due to COVID-19 disruptions will weigh on housing demand. Not even lower interest rates will be enough to save the housing market, she added. Singh wrote that Moody’s Analytics’ baseline scenario would see Canadian home prices experience a seven percent peak-to-trough decline. The effects would not be evenly distributed across the country. Major markets in oil-producing regions, like Calgary and Edmonton, are considered to be most vulnerable. Condo and rental segments in the expensive Toronto and Vancouver markets will be more adversely affected than the lower density areas located outside their urban cores. While this is a hefty dose of gloom following the market’s remarkable summer recovery, Singh said that, fortunately, the price declines will be brief. [T]he restoration of robust job growth in 2022 along with Canada’s strong demographics will put a floor under the housing market which mitigates the degree of the declines, she wrote. With the worst price effects confined to 2021, Singh said that prices will meaningfully recover beginning in early 2022.

Thinking of Renting Your Home on a Short Term Basis. Check this information out first. The City of Toronto has launched a new online registration system for operators who are renting their homes on a short-term basis for a period of less than 28 consecutive days. Registration for short-term rentals needs to be completed online. Operators/hosts are only allowed to short-term rent their principal residence:... This is the residence where hosts live and is the address they use for bills, identification, taxes and insurance. Hosts can only have one principal residence at a time; therefore, they cannot legally run more than one short-term rental. Operators/hosts can short-term rent in any housing type, for example house, apartment or condominium. However, if hosts are short-term renting their condominium unit, they should ensure that they are allowed to do so by their condominium board or landlord. Registration is a mandatory step to legally rent out homes for short-term stays. To continue short-term renting, current operators must be registered by December 31, 2020. Future operators will be able to register on an ongoing basis, but must do so before short-term renting their homes. License Required for Those Running a Short-Term Rental Business The City also requires short-term rental companies to obtain a licence from the City in order to carry on business in Toronto. A short-term rental company is any company facilitating or brokering short-term rental reservations online and receiving payment for this service, such as Airbnb, Expedia and Booking.com. The City is currently working with short-term rental companies on the licensing process and more information is available on the City's website. Enforcement The City continues to respond to issues on a complaint basis. Residents can contact 311 to report issues related to short-term rentals, such as noise, waste and concerns that people are renting homes that are not their principal residence, and the City will investigate accordingly. The City will continue to educate the public on short-term rental rules, encourage operators to register their short-term rentals, and work with companies to ensure compliance with the licensing rules. The City will take enforcement actions against short-term rental operators that are not registered or are not following the rules. Enforcement action will also be taken against companies that allow unregistered operators to list on their platform or contravene the bylaw.

THE MUCH AWAITED ROYAL LEPAGE RECREATIONAL PROPERTY REPORT Canadian Recreational Property Prices Forecast to Rise 4.7% Low inventory results in 7.2 per cent price gain in Ontario’s cottage country Despite spring flooding in Quebec, prices are projected to remain strong (5.6%)...Continue reading

Ottawa Housing Market is "hot"