Roberta Hardern
200 carnegie drive T8N 5A8 Saint Albert, AB, Canada

Rebound imminent, claims report According to a report by Altus Group, the preponderant reason for the languid housing market this year has been the absence of first-time buyersbut they’ll be back soon and the market will resultantly recover. With all the policy changes we’ve had and additional stress testing, they have knocked many first-time buyers out of the market for a while, but part of what they’re doing is saving money. They’ll be back, said Patricia Arsenault, vice... president of research and consulting services at Altus Group. Particularly among younger renters; they’re inclined to buy homes. Because of their ability at the moment, they’re saving longer and tapping resources from parents to help them out, but they’ll be back in the short-term. There’s nothing out there that says they don’t want to own homes anymore. Arsenault added that, by autumn, housing sales will markedly improve. People are saving for down payments, she said. Savings rates are up in Canada and that money is being used for better down payments. The Altus Group Housing Report furthermore elucidates how instrumental first-time homebuyers are to the health of the Canadian real estate market. They account for somewhere around half of all housing sales, but, unlike years past, they have been forced to the sidelines in 2018. Given the housing market’s interconnectedness, fewer first-time buyers occlude other buyers from moving up the housing ladder. The important role that first-time buyers play is that if I’m a repeat buyer trying to move up to something more expensive, I need somebody to buy my house, said Arsenault. If first-time buyers aren’t there, there’s nobody to buy my house, so they make the world go around, if you want to put it that way. Mortgage Broker News

Bank of Canada Raises interest rates Rates are up by 25 basis points, so prime with most banks will move to 3.7%.

BoC hike this month a dead certainty - observer Fresh economic numbers from Statistics Canada pointed to a sustained acceleration to beyond 2% growth in Q2 2018 a necessary condition for the Bank of Canada to proceed with interest rate hikes in the second half of this year, according to a markets observer. We’ve passed the first of three hurdles remaining for the Bank of Canada decision on July 11, Manulife Asset Management senior economist Frances Donald told BNN Bloombe...rg. GDP has come in that’s certainly enough to check the box for the Bank of Canada and a July rate hike. The Statistics Canada report released late last week showed that the Canadian economy enjoyed surprisingly strong output, mainly due to the stabilizing real estate and manufacturing segments. GDP saw 0.1% month-over-month gains in April, defying expert predictions of flat performance. This marked the third straight month of growth after the 0.3% in March and the 0.4% in February. All in all, these numbers that you’re telling me right now say it’s a go for a July rate hike, Donald stated. Read more: Economy shows the time is right for interest rate hikes BoC’s Poloz The Bank of Montreal agreed that the April numbers are promising, although it didn’t directly comment on the possibility of a rate hike. While readily acknowledging that a 0.1% rise in headline GDP is not going to send many hearts racing, this actually was a decent result in a challenging month for the economy, chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a note to investors. Importantly, it suggests that growth was pretty much in line with the Bank of Canada’s underlying expectations through the spring. Real estate agent and broker activity rose by 0.5% in April, the largest jump recorded ever since the implementation of B-20 at the beginning of 2018. Meanwhile, manufacturing went up by 0.8%. Related stories:

BoC hike this month a dead certainty - observer BoC hike this month a dead certainty - observer Fresh economic numbers from Statistics Canada pointed to a sustained acceleration to beyond 2% growth in Q2 2018 a necessary condition for the Bank of Canada to proceed with interest rate hikes in the second half of this year, according to a markets observer.... We’ve passed the first of three hurdles remaining for the Bank of Canada decision on July 11, Manulife Asset Management senior economist Frances Donald told BNN Bloomberg. GDP has come in that’s certainly enough to check the box for the Bank of Canada and a July rate hike. The Statistics Canada report released late last week showed that the Canadian economy enjoyed surprisingly strong output, mainly due to the stabilizing real estate and manufacturing segments. GDP saw 0.1% month-over-month gains in April, defying expert predictions of flat performance. This marked the third straight month of growth after the 0.3% in March and the 0.4% in February. All in all, these numbers that you’re telling me right now say it’s a go for a July rate hike, Donald stated. The Bank of Montreal agreed that the April numbers are promising, although it didn’t directly comment on the possibility of a rate hike. While readily acknowledging that a 0.1% rise in headline GDP is not going to send many hearts racing, this actually was a decent result in a challenging month for the economy, chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a note to investors. Importantly, it suggests that growth was pretty much in line with the Bank of Canada’s underlying expectations through the spring. Real estate agent and broker activity rose by 0.5% in April, the largest jump recorded ever since the implementation of B-20 at the beginning of 2018. Meanwhile, manufacturing went up by 0.8%.

Federal Conservatives decry B-20, push for study to examine effects Federal Conservatives decry B-20, push for study to examine effects The Federal Conservative Party of Canada's Deputy Shadow Minister for Finance has proposed creating a subcommittee to study B-20’s impact in a bid to have it overturned....Continue reading

Bank of Canada rate announcement OTTAWA _ The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate target on hold Wednesday, but hinted that rate hikes could be coming as it noted the Canadian economy was a little stronger than expected in the first quarter.

Edmonton bucks the national home price growth trend report Edmonton bucks the national home price growth trend report The benchmark price for a three-bedroom home in Edmonton has declined in April (down to $334,440) compared to last year, according to the latest numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association.... This continued the market’s streak of going against the national trend of rising home prices: Over the last five years, Edmonton prices went up by just 4.2%, versus the nationwide figure of 46.7%. It’s a double-edged sword. Higher house prices typically represent a stronger economy, according to David Dale-Johnson, executive professor in real estate at the University of Alberta School of Business. [But] you can be a university graduate here in Edmonton, get your first job and it’s not inconceivable you can buy your own home fairly soon. Fundamentally, it’s a much healthier economy than you have in Vancouver, Dale-Johnson told the Edmonton Journal. The flip side of a housing boom is that decreasing affordability can drive away potential home owners, and in turn negatively affecting the market’s workforce. However, whether buying or renting makes more sense in the relatively sedate Edmonton market remains an open question, Dale-Johnson said. The two big factors are, on the financial side, how much is it going to appreciate compared to other investments, he explained. On the non-financial side, what’s my living situation do I want to find a place I want to be for 10 or 15 years or the rest of my life? CREA stated that Regina and Saskatoon were the only Canadian cities that showed slower price growth rates compared to Edmonton. In contrast, Calgary residential real estate prices went up by 8.3%, and the Greater Vancouver market posted an 81% increase (up to $1.1 million).

Alberta economy is recovering, just not at a whiplash rate Boom-bust-slow-but-steady recovery? According to ATB Financial's latest economic update, Alberta is facing something unusual: a bounce back from a bust that doesn't cause whiplash. ...Continue reading

BoC renews commitment to keeping rates frozen at record lows In its Oct. 28 policy decision, the Bank of Canada reiterated its pledge towards record-low rates for the foreseeable future, with the benchmark rate to remain at the effective lower bound of 0.25% until around 2023.

Rates Oct 20, 2020 1 Year 1.74% 2 Years 1.74% 3 Years 1.69%... 4 Years 1.74% 5 Years 1.74% 7 Years 2.34% 10 Years 2.94% ARM/VRM P +/- -0.75% 6 Months 2.79% Benchmark rate is 4.79% See more

Bank of canada rate stays the same Bank of Canada makes key interest rate announcement The Bank of Canada is leaving its key interest rate unchanged, as expected, at 1.75 per cent.... This morning’s announcement comes in the wake of a move by the Alberta government to curtail oil production in the province after Jan. 1 to try to clear a crude storage glut that has driven western Canadian oil prices to multi-year lows. Meanwhile, the recently announced plan to close the General Motors of Canada car plant in Oshawa similarly offers a downside risk to future growth. Bank economists say an unexpected dip in monthly gross domestic product figures in September and lower-than-expected oil prices so far in the fourth quarter have dampened growth expectations and placed in doubt forecasts for a January bank rate increase. Lower growth prospects are expected to reinforce Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s strategy of moving very gradually on increases to its overnight rate. Economists say they will be closely watching Poloz’s speech on Thursday for signs of how events are affecting his view of the path forward. The Canadian Press

USMCA and the Coming Interest Rate Increases The Bank of Canada may have just received the green light it needed to move forward with its desired interest rate increases over the remainder of this year and into 2019. The new United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaces NAFTA, finally removes the uncertainty that clouded Canada’s trade future with its biggest trading partner.... For the BoC, this clearly gives them a green light to hike in October and does bump the odds of further rate hikes over the year, BMO chief economist Douglas Porter wrote in a recent note. While rate hikes will likely stay gradual, the pace may pick up slightly more than previously expected over the coming year. Similarly, National Bank Financial economist Krishen Rangasamy wrote that the announcement of the trade deal with the U.S. removes the last obstacle to monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Canada. Markets are 86% priced in for a rate hike at the BoC’s October 24 meeting, with most analysts now forecasting three additional rate hikes to come in 2019. That would bring the overnight lending rate to 2.50%, its highest level since 2008.

Bank of Canada makes interest rate announcement by Andy Blatchford OTTAWA _ The Bank of Canada's decision to leave its interest rate unchanged Wednesday could be just a brief pause that comes as it carefully follows the unpredictable twists in the country's trade talks with the United States....Continue reading