Madison's Lumber Reporter

With the harsh winter season behind us, in April 2021 construction activity rebounded spectacularly compared to one year ago when the restrictions of Covid were in place and industry was halted for approximately six weeks. US Housing Total and 1-Unit Starts April & Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices May 2021 madisonsreport.com The headlines today read that US housing starts are down compared to last month, which they are but by such small amounts it would be far to say they are level.... https://madisonsreport.com//us-housing-starts-april-softw/

Lumber Prices are High, but IS it Gouging Though? (Video) Much has been made of the recent sharp increase in the price of lumber, with a whole crop of suddenly new commenters saying this is price gouging. Where were these people for the past ten years when lumber was undervalued? https://youtu.be/T7Xvg1olkzA... FULL STORY + GRAPHS: https://madisonsreport.com//lumber-prices-are-high-but-is/ BIG THANKS TO https://www.soleraadvisors.com/ for the chats, insight, and graphs :-D #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #housing #UShousing #RealEstate #wood

madisonsreport.com An examination of current lumber prices if paid in the current price of other commodities, IE: WTI Brent, Copper, and even Bitcoin. Comparison of current WTI Brent price if paid in Bitcoin. Much has been made of the recent sharp increase in the price of lumber, with a whole crop of suddenly new commenters saying this is "price gouging". Where were these people for the past ten years when lumber was undervalued?... https://madisonsreport.com//lumber-prices-are-high-but-is/

A severe lack of supply along with unrelenting demand sent softwood lumber prices up once again for the week ending April 30. At the producer level, sawmill order files stretched out 4 weeks or longer, with chronic delayed deliveries adding approximately 3 weeks to that. madisonsreport.com As the home building season is just getting started for the year, extremely busy construction activity forced customers to buy whatever wood they could, at whatever price was quoted.... https://madisonsreport.com//lumber-prices-push-up-further/

US Total and 1-Unit Housing Starts Dec 2020 & Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices Jan 2021 madisonsreport.com Single-family housing permits rose +7.8% to a 1.23 million pace, the fastest since 2006 Construction climbed in three of four regions, led by a +32% surge in the Midwest, with starts in the Northeast seeing the lone decline The total number of residential projects authorized but not yet started edged lower to 185,000, but remains historically strong, suggesting builder backlog remains robust... https://madisonsreport.com//us-housing-starts-december-an/

madisonsreport.com As mid-January 2021 came upon us, it seemed like supply and demand for softwood lumber and panel products reached an equilibrium. Almost all prices were flat, except the 2x8 sizes which dropped somewhat. Players agreed that this current lull could indicate a new level of asking prices at lumber producers and wholesalers. Field inventories with buyers were not at such emergency-low levels as they had been during almost all of 2020, but still no one was stocking up on supply as prices remained high compared to historical trends.... https://madisonsreport.com//most-softwood-lumber-prices-s/

wwwpa.org Continuing the bumpy road through 2020, Canada’s sawmill capacity utilization rates dropped again in October while those in the US remained relatively flat. Compared to one-year-ago, for January - October 2020 softwood lumber production in the US improved further over the previous year, up another +2.7%, says the latest issue of the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track... https://madisonsreport.com//north-america-softwood-lumber/

North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber and panel prices used in Canadian and US home building. Explanation of the seasonal cycle for softwood lumber buying as well as investment the sawmills need to make for their feedstock -- log supply and inventory. https://madisonsreport.com//north-american-softwood-lumbe/

As Demand Resurges Softwood Lumber Prices Recover Just unbelievable for this time of year and if someone had predicted it a month ago they would have been met with derisive laughter, but lumber prices were actually up last week as demand increased. Sawmills simply do not have enough wood in their yards to sell to ravenous customers. As one large-scale lumber trader put it at the beginning of this week, Customers who were reluctant to book orders at these new higher prices..., when they called back that wood was already sold. Construction framing dimension softwood lumber is selling as if it is April, when the US home building season is getting started, not the end of November when construction and thus forestry are normally closing down for the year. Both the Case-Shiller house price index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index came out Tuesday and are showing +7% and +8% increases respectively compared to last year. One thing is for sure: 2021 is going to be a hot banana for US home building and thus for lumber sales and prices. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//as-demand-resurges-softwood-l/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

US House Prices: 3Q and Oct 2020 US house prices rise by the most since 1991 as US mortgage lenders record their biggest quarter in two decades The median price for previously owned homes has hit a new record at US$313,000, up +16% from a year ago, the USNational Association of Realtors said Thursday. There are fewer homes for sale in the US today than ever recorded in data going back nearly 40 years. That's a big part of what's driving up home prices much faster than incomes..., and making homeownership less affordable for more and more Americans. Every single metro area tracked by the organization saw home prices increase from a year ago, and 65% of areas witnessed double-digit price growth. In October, the inventory of existing single-family homes for sale dropped to 2.4 months' worth the lowest since records began in 1982, the NAR said. Housing inventory shortages have pushed national home prices considerably higher. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-house-prices-3q-and-oct-20/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

Canada Housing Starts: Oct 2020 The trend in Canadian housing starts was 222,734 units in October 2020, up from 214,372 units in September 2020, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Tuesday. This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. Canadian housing starts rose +3% in October compared with the previous month as an increase in detached urban starts outweighed a small decreas...e in multiple urban starts. Single-detached urban starts were up +14% to 57,788 units, while multiple urban starts fell -0.2% to 144,796 units. #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

US Housing Starts & Softwood Lumber Prices: October and November 2020 New home building in the US surged up by +5% to an annual rate of 1.530 million in October 2020 after soaring by +6.3% to an upwardly revised rate of 1.459 million in September. As in previous months, the increase was driven by single-family starts, which rose by +6.4% to 1.18 million. Compared to the same month a year ago, US housing starts in October 2020 were up by +14%,while building permits were up by ...+3%. For the week ending November 13, 2020 the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2x4 #2&Btr reversed recent drops, to climb +$10, or +2%, to US$590 mfbm.This week's price is -$370, or -39%, less than it was one month ago. Compared to one year ago, this price is up +$194, or +49%. The USA purchases approximately 65% of Canada’s dimension lumber production mostly for home construction framing, while Canadian buyers account for about 10%, and those in Japan take 6%. * Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-housing-starts-softwood-lu/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

Softwood Lumber Prices Mixed Bag As market conditions stabilized, some North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices fell further, others were flat, and still others actually rose somewhat. After a few weeks of seeming free-fall, most lumber prices stabilized last week as the supply-demand balance corrected nicely. Suppliers in Canada and the US saw more orders coming in as end-users continued to run on extremely weak inventories. Buyer reluctance in t...he past few weeks, while prices were falling and production remained high, evaporated. Customers could no longer wait to see if prices would fall further. Sawmill order files actually grew, for some products even into December which is quite unusual for this time of year. Producers fielded customer calls with glee, and looked forward to the US Thanksgiving holiday next week which is usually the end of substantial lumber sales across North America until the beginning of the following year. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//softwood-lumber-prices-mixed-/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

US Home Prices: 3Q 2020 Every metro area in the United States tracked by the US National Association of Realtors during 3Q 2020 saw home prices increase from a year ago, according to NAR’s latest quarterly report, released Thursday. 65% of metro areas had double-digit price gains. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical single-family home rose to US$1,059 and the family income needed to afford a home rose to US$50,819. ... The proportion of first-time buyers dropped to 31%, the lowest share in over 30 years. The nation's median existing single-family home price climbed +12% on a year-over-year basis, to US$313,500. All four major regions saw double-digit year-over-year price gains, led by the West, +14%, but followed closely by the Northeast, +13%, the South +11%, and the Midwest, +11%. At this rate, home prices were growing four times as fast as median family income, which was +3%. At the end of 3Q 2020, 1.47 million existing homes were available for sale, -19% lower than total inventory at the end of 3Q 2019. As of September 2020, housing inventory totals were equivalent to 2.7 months at the current sales pace. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com/2020//13/us-home-prices-3q-2020/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

US Housing Starts & Softwood Lumber Prices: September and October 2020 After dropping a little bit in August due to a plummet in multi-family home building, privately-owned US housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000, the US Commerce Department said Tuesday. This is +2% above the revised August rate of 1,388,000 and is and astonishing +8.1% above the September 2019 rate of 1,274,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a ra...te of 1,108,000; this is +8.5% above the revised August figure of 1,021,000. Single family starts were up an amazing +18.2% year-over-year. Single-family building permits increased almost +20% compared to September 2019, also a huge jump, to a rate of 1,119,000 units. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-housing-starts-softwood-lu/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #wood #ushousing #housing

US Housing Starts: Oct 2020 The latest housing starts report by the US Commerce Department, released Wednesday, said new home building in the US surged up by +5% to an annual rate of 1.530 million in October 2020 after soaring by +6.3% to an upwardly revised rate of 1.459 million in September. As in previous months, the increase was driven by single-family starts, which rose by +6.4% to 1.18 million. By contrast, starts in the more volatile multi-family segment held flat at 3...51k for the second straight month. Overall, building permits were flat in October, at a 13-1/2-year high, after increasing by +5% the month prior. However, it is usual for home building and construction to slow down as the winter season comes on across North America. Most important for the softwood lumber industry, single-family permits continued their seven-month streak of advances, rising by a modest +0.6%. Compared to the same month a year ago, US housing starts in October 2020 were up by +14%, while building permits were up by +3%. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//11/18/us-housing-starts-oct-2/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

US Construction Spending: Sept 2020 In keeping with unusually high softwood lumber prices for the season and a seemingly-unstoppable US real estate market, the latest US construction spending data provides further insight. Total US construction spending during September 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$1,414 billion, basically flat compared to the revised August estimate of $1,410 billion, said the US Census Bureau November 2. ... Private Construction More relevant to solid wood sales, spending on US private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$1,075 billion, +1% above the revised August estimate of US$1,065 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$611 billion in September, +3% above the revised August estimate of US$594 billion. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-construction-spending-sept/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #ushousing #housing #building #construction #wood

Last week producer & wholesaler dimension softwood lumber prices across North America dropped, as expected for this time of year. However, US housing starts data for September are very strong. Madison’s Lumber Reporter expects that by US Thanksgiving this year, we will know the new bottom for lumber prices, and that January 2021 will see a return to hot demand for construction framing lumber commodities The sales price of most softwood lumber continued their recent drops la...st week, except benchmark items Western S-P-F KD 24 R/L and benchmark panel commodities Oriented Strand Board & Plywood. This suggest an ongoing sellers market, and that producers are able to sustain manufacturing volumes based on their sawmill strong order files. Suppliers don’t need to lower prices to close sales; instead focussing on making wood already ordered and getting previously-sold materials out to waiting customers. The biggest pickle right now remains to be transportation, as trucks are still difficult to source and expected rail cars are not arriving. Western S-P-F prices held firm, Eastern S-P-F plummeted again, and panels’ price were flat. Madison’s Lumber Reporter FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//softwood-lumber-prices-drop-a/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #wood #housing

US new #home #building in Sept up more than +11% compared to one year ago, single-family #starts up an unbelievable +22% ... Canadian and US #softwood #lumber manufacturing will need to ramp up a LOT for 2021 (y) US #housing #construction at 2007 levels. https://financialpost.com//u-s-single-family-homebuilding-

US Home Remodelling Index: 3Q 2020 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its Remodelling Market Index (RMI) in 3Q 2020 today, posting a reading of 82, which indicates strong remodeller sentiment, as business has strengthened while home owners focus on the importance of home for work and life amidst the pandemic and its consequences. In 3Q, all components and subcomponents of the RMI were 77 or above. ... The Current Conditions Index averaged 86, with large remodelling projects (US$50,000 or more) yielding a reading of 80, moderately-sized remodelling projects (at least US$20,000 but less than US$50,000) at 86, and small remodelling projects (under US$20,000) with a reading of 90. These readings indicate that the strength for remodeling is felt across all types of projects. The Future Indicators Index averaged 77, with the rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in at 78 and the backlog of remodelling jobs at 77. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-home-remodelling-index-3q-/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing

US Home Building vs Sales: 3Q 2020 The fact that US home sales are outpacing construction starts to this degree indicates additional home building lies ahead. US home building has staged a dramatic rebound, said the US National Association of Home Builders today. In fact, supported by low mortgage rates, an evolving geography of housing preferences, and favorable demographic tailwinds, housing demand has improved so quickly that the current difference between the pace of newl...y-built single-family home sales and for-sale single-family construction starts has reached a historic level. US home sales are up 69% compared to a year ago, an incredible jump. Low levels of existing inventory, rising resale prices relative to new construction, strong builder confidence, and sales exceeding for-sale starts point to solid levels of US home construction in the months ahead. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//us-home-building-vs-sales-3q-/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing

Canada New Home Sales: Sept 2020 Actual (not seasonally adjusted) Canadian home sales activity posted a +46% y-o-y gain in September 2020. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of some 20,000 transactions. Canada's national home sales rose +1% on a month-over-month basis in September 2020. ... Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up +46% year-over-year. The number of newly listed properties fell back by -10% from August to September. The MLS Home Price Index rose +1.3% m-o-m and was up +10.3% y-o-y. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a +18% year-over-year gain in September. Benchmark prices are up +5.3% since June, near the fastest pace on record for a three month period. Average home prices set another record in September, topping $600,000 for the first time ever and up +18% from a year earlier. There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//canada-new-home-sales-sept-20/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #ushousing #building #construction #housing

Canadian Softwood Lumber Adjusted AD/CVD Cash Deposit *New* Effective Date A written response has arrived from the U.S. DOC’s Office of AD/CVD Enforcement and Compliance. It is their understanding that the effective date for the new adjusted softwood lumber AD/CVD cash deposit rates, is now November 23rd. -- Michael D. Jones, President Jones & Jones Customs Brokers and Trade Consultants... The final determination by the US Commerce Dept on Canada’s softwood lumber duty rate was initially supposed to be August. The duty rates will be lowered to: 9.08 per cent from 23.56 per cent for West Fraser 4.63 per cent from 20.52 per cent at Canfor 15.84 per cent from 17.90 per cent at Resolute Forest Products 4.32 per cent from 9.38 per cent at J.D. Irving 8.21 per cent for all others. FULL STORY, INCLUDING LINK TO PREVIOUS UPDATE: https://madisonsreport.com//canadian-softwood-lumber-adju/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing

Many Softwood Lumber Prices Correct Down While Benchmark WSPF 2x4s Continue to Stay Level The Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend brought a not-surprising further drop in prices of most benchmark construction framing dimension softwood lumber commodities, as the days got increasingly shorter and the weather turned ever more winter-like. Demand across North America was almost entirely for small fill-in orders, while sawmills were preoccupied with locating shipments long-ago sen...t to customers. The big question on the mind of industry players is, Where is the softwood lumber price bottom and when will that arrive? All that can be said right now, is it will be much higher and much later than in usual years. The latest lumber production and sawmill capacity utilization rates data release from the Western Wood Products Association for July shows the all-important wood manufacturing volumes in Canada took a significant tumble downward in July 2020, after recovering nicely in May and June from terrible lows of April. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//many-softwood-lumber-prices-c/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing

North America Softwood Lumber Production, Sawmill Capacity Utilization, WWPA: JULY 2020 US softwood lumber production and sawmill capacity utilization rates continued to improve in July 2020 but those in Canada experienced drops compared to the previous month. Compared to one-year-ago, for January - July 2020 softwood lumber production in the US increased previous improvements, up by +3.2%, says the latest issue of the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.... In the first seven months of this year, US lumber production volume was 21,307 mfbm compared to the same time in 2019 when it was 20,655 mfbm. In Canada, meanwhile, softwood lumber production actually dropped in July after recovering somewhat in June, down for the first seven months of 2020, to 13,010 mfbm, compared to January - July 2019 when it was 14,530 mfbm. This is a big drop, of -11%. Comparing the month of July to June 2020, Canada softwood lumber production reversed previous improvements, to fall by -8%, at 1,871 mfbm for July 2020 compared to 2,027 mfbm the previous month. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//north-america-softwood-lumber/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

Most Softwood Lumber Prices Flat or Slightly Down as Canadian Thanksgiving Approaches As previously stated by Madison’s, for US home building activity and thus softwood lumber demand, Labour Day is the beginning of the end and US Thanksgiving is the end of the end. Canadian Thanksgiving is somewhere in the middle of these important dates, so provides a good indication of what is happening with lumber prices as US housing slows down into the winter season. Last week most saw...mills reported order files of three weeks or longer, which is quite strong for this season. Deliveries were terribly behind, making customers nervous that about their wood arriving in time for construction needs. Demand was truly non-stop, so there is no reason for lumber producers to lower prices. The good news is that all sawmills well stocked with logs. Eastern S-P-F R/L and Western S-P-F straight-lengths prices corrected down last week by a noteworthy amount. However the week before OSB & Plywood prices popped up significantly. FULL STORY: https://madisonsreport.com//most-softwood-lumber-prices-f/ #sawmill #softwood #lumber #building #construction #ushousing #housing #wood

the Stellar's Jay (and others) has rendered its objection to my tree trimming activity ... now it's business as usual <3

when you cut half the tree but it doesn't even look like you did anything :-/ #quince #autumn #Vancouver #gardening #yard #pruning